Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?

  1. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?
Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
1 923 1112 1243
2 1056 1156 1301
3 1124 1124 1254
4 992 1078 1198

 

 

 

  1. Use a multiple regression model with dummy variables as follows to develop an equation to account for seasonal effects in the data. Qtr1 = 1 if quarter 1, 0 otherwise; Qtr2 = 1 if quarter 2, 0 otherwise; Qtr3 = 1 if quarter 3, 0 otherwise.
  2. Compute the quarterly forecasts for next year based on the model developed in part b.
  1. Compare the three-period moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using α = 0.3. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE?